The aviation industry is bracing for another year of turbulence, as delivery delays at Boeing and supply chain problems are set to continue into 2025, say aviation consultants.
Sunday marked one year since a door panel blew off a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines, an event that reignited a firestorm of questions about Boeing’s quality and safety standards.
Since then, the company has instituted a series of changes, including mandatory workforce training and increased inspections, according to a company statement published Friday. Boeing also said it improved its “Speak Up” system to encourage employees to report workplace concerns.
But that’s not enough, Mike Boyd, president and co-founder of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International, told “Squawk Box Asia” Monday.
“The entire board of directors should have been fired,” he said. “The new CEO and new people in there say they’re doing something, but this is such a deep problem.”
Without aircraft deliveries from Boeing, airlines such as Southwest, Wizz Air and Ryanair are spending money they “had not wanted to spend to overhaul airplanes they were going to retire,” Boyd said.
“Fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be a very bumpy year ahead,” he said.
“Boeing is going to be losing a lot of territory to our friends at Airbus. There’s just no question about it,” he said, adding that the company may become more of a “secondary player” to Airbus in the future.
Pete Buttigieg, the U.S. transportation secretary, said Monday that Boeing has “much more” work to do, according to Reuters.
“The culture change at Boeing is something that is a real work in progress,” he said. “The only way to fully assess it will be to see they can consistently improve results.”
John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation intelligence company OAG, said tangible improvements at Boeing are unlikely to come before the end of 2025, at the earliest.
“With the regulators crawling all over the company and new processes being established, it’s perhaps too early to say that things are improving,” he said. “The good news is that things haven’t gotten any worse from an operational perspective.”
However, “the financials and labor relations are another issue,” he said.
Boeing hasn’t turned an annual profit since 2018. The company’s suffered another production setback after its machinists initiated a seven-week strike that ended in November with workers securing a 38% incremental wage increase.
A Boeing spokesperson told CNBC the company is focused on stabilizing the business and implementing its “Safety and Quality Plan.” The spokesperson highlighted a dozen actions Boeing took in 2024, from leadership changes to its board and the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to the expansion of its South Carolina site for increased production of its 787 aircraft.
Beyond Boeing
Problems in the aviation industry go well beyond Boeing, said Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst at Sobie Aviation.
From spare part shortages to engine maintenance, he said, “it’s about the entire ecosystem of companies that are around the industry.”
“It’s been a very difficult period, and there’s no real sign of this going away anytime soon,” he said. “These are problems that will take years — not a single year — to resolve.”
Sobie said airlines are particularly frustrated by reliability and maintenance problems at engine-makers Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce.
As to the issues at Pratt & Whitney, he offered a glimmer of positivity for the industry: “It probably is past its worst period.”
What this means for travelers
Engine problems are forcing many airlines, including Hawaiian Airlines and Spirit Airlines, to ground portions of their fleet, said Boyd.
“The engines aren’t there,” he said. “Wizz Air in the E.U. just grounded 40 airplanes for the year.”
That will make deals on airfare harder to find in 2025, he said. “If you’re looking for some really cheaper fares out there, I don’t think even Mr. O’Leary at Ryanair can promise that,” he said, referencing Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary.
Scott Keyes, founder of the air travel website Going, said airfares will likely increase in 2025. In a post on Dec. 30, Keyes outlined how flight costs to, from and within the United States have changed since the Covid-19 pandemic.
- 2020: -17%
- 2021: -4%
- 2022: +36%
- 2023: -12%
- 2024: +5%
However, Sobie said that capacity problems caused by grounded flights may be offset by an increase in flights, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where the industry is still recovering from the Covid pandemic.
He said airfares are normalizing at a level above pre-Covid fares but below 2022’s peak levels — however, costs and supply chain issues are not. This year may bring some improvement, he said, but “overall, these challenges still remain.”
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