A person waits at a bus stop in the Brooklyn borough on March 25, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The shadow of a U.S. recession is growing longer and darkening the outlook for both consumers and CFOs alike, according to various surveys tracking sentiment in March. That said, Wall Street has risen over the past three days — investors, perhaps, are cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump will soften his stance on reciprocal tariffs.
Across the pond, German software-maker SAP, riding a wave of stock gains has taken the crown of Europe’s most valuable company — it has risen almost 10% so far this year. Meanwhile, over in China, electric vehicle maker BYD has overtaken Tesla in annual revenue.
Still, the U.S. occupies such a central role in the global financial and economic system that if a recession were to happen, it would undoubtedly have widespread repercussions — and sway the fortunes of companies like SAP and BYD.
What you need to know today
U.S. stocks eke out small gains
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 added 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.01% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.46%. That was the third straight positive session for all three indexes. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.67% higher, with most sectors and all major bourses in positive territory. Germany’s DAX led regional gains, up 1.13%, after a survey showed improved business sentiment in the country.
Consumers lose confidence
The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. It’s also lower than the 93.5 reading expected in a Dow Jones survey of economists. The measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession.
Fears of a downturn on the horizon
Other surveys are also fanning recession fears. Around 60% of CFOs expect a U.S. recession in the second half of the year, according to the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey. A separate Deutsche Bank survey found that the probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, going by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20.
BYD revenue blasts past Tesla’s
Chinese automaker BYD reported annual revenue of 777 billion yuan ($107 billion) for 2024, in a filing published Monday. Bolstered by sales of hybrid vehicles, that figure represents a 29% increase in revenue from the previous year — and exceeded the $97.7 billion annual revenue reported by Elon Musk’s Tesla. The filing comes shortly after BYD announced a new battery technology that it claims can charge EVs within five minutes.
SAP surpasses Novo Nordisk
Software-maker SAP became Europe’s most valuable company this week. The German company had a market capitalization of around $343.3 billion by Tuesday’s close, according to LSEG data, with shares rising 1.33% on the day and up more than 40% over the last year. SAP takes the spot as Europe’s most valuable company from Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical giant known for its weight management drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.
GameStop will buy bitcoin
Video-game retailer GameStop announced Tuesday it plans to buy bitcoin and U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins through cash or future debt and equity issuances. GameStop will be following in the footsteps of Strategy — earlier known as MicroStrategy — whose stock rapidly rose after the company accumulated billions of dollars worth of bitcoins. The meme stock jumped more than 7% in extended trading Tuesday following the news.
[PRO] Real culprit of Tesla’s slump?
Tesla’s stock has been sinking in recent weeks — though it’s pared some losses over the past two days — with many attributing the beating to CEO Elon Musk’s dealings in Washington, D.C. However, investment bank Piper Sandler thinks the real culprit dragging down shares of Tesla can be found elsewhere — which explains the firm’s bullish view on the EV company.
And finally…
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack is pictured in the Permian basin, Loco Hills regions, New Mexico, U.S., April 6, 2023.
Liz Hampton | Reuters
Why oil companies may not love Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ agenda
U.S. President Donald Trump is urging oil producers to “drill, baby, drill.” U.S. oil and gas investors may not be on board with the plan.
“Right now, with low oil prices, I think we’re going to start to see a lot of companies starting to pare back on their capital spending,” said Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
The U.S. is already producing more crude oil than any other nation in history. In December 2024, U.S. oil and gas firms produced more than 13.49 million barrels of crude per day. That’s an all-time high rate of production, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration records.
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