Europe stocks open lower
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was 1.6% lower shortly after the market open early on Thursday, as traders assessed the scope and impact of U.S. tariffs.
Banks on the index were down 3.2% at 8:10 a.m. U.K. time, while technology stocks fell 2.6%.
A range of European firms expected to be hit by the measures declined sharply, with German retailers Puma and Adidas down 9% and 8.6% respectively. Swedish automaker Volvo Cars was down 9%, and shipping giant Maersk — viewed as a barometer for global trade — shed 7.4%.
Stoxx 600 index.
Euro jumps to five-month high over U.S. dollar
The euro was 1.11% higher against the U.S. dollar at 7:43 a.m. at $1.0975, its highest level since Oct. 9.
Sterling climbed 0.75% against the greenback, while the U.S. dollar index, a measurement against a basket of major currencies, fell 1.2%.
Euro/U.S. dollar
Tariffs to dent U.S. second-quarter GDP by 10%: High Frequency Economics
U.S. tariff policies announced Wednesday would see U.S. gross domestic product take a 10% hit in the second quarter of 2025, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Carl Weinberg said in a note Thursday, potentially pushing the world’s largest economy into a recession after a predicted small contraction in the first quarter.
Weinberg estimated that tariffs would take $741 billion out of U.S. household real incomes or corporate profits, or more if fully accounting for all tariffs on aluminum, steel and non-exempt trade with Canada and Mexico. His calculation of an average tariff rate on two-dozen countries of at least 30% is greater than expected, he said.
The U.S. economy will also be hit by price rises, Weinberg added, with the rate of an imported item such as softwood lumber higher by up to 25% — even if some of the inflationary impact is cushioned by downward pressure on the economy.
“Once a company fails, it will not spring back to life even if tariffs are reversed. If profits are hit — they are sure to be — then will stock prices crack? Will there be collateral damage as the economy adjusts to this new tariff regime? We are concerned.”
— Jenni Reid
Europe’s ‘worst economic nightmare’: Economists react to tariff announcement
Europe’s “worst economic nightmare just came true,” economists at ING said in a note late Wednesday regarding news on 20% U.S. tariffs.
“While in recent weeks, the longer-term outlook for Europe had clearly brightened with the European defence initiatives and the German fiscal U-turn, tariffs have just darkened the near-term outlook.”
The EU’s willingness to negotiate is admirable but may be a lengthy process and does not appear to have much receptivity stateside, the ING economists said, potentially making an offer to buy more U.S. goods a quicker option for a deal.
Container gantry cranes are seen at the container terminal ‘Eurogate’ in the harbour of the northern German city of Hamburg Port on February 27, 2025 in Hamburg, Germany.
Morris Macmatzen | Getty Images News | Getty Images
EU countermeasures will include reinstating suspended tariffs on U.S. goods and adding higher counter-tariffs to a range of products including agriculture and food, clothing, furniture, household appliances, construction, steel, cars and car parts and precious metals, they added.
Overall, ING estimates 20% blanket tariffs could cut 0.3 percentage points from euro zone economic growth over the next two years, accounting only for direct and indirect trade impact.
Berenberg economists Atakan Bakiskan and Salomon Fiedler said the euro zone impact was “serious” but “could have been worse.”
“We expect the damage of the escalating trade conflict to primarily show up in lower real GDP, while the net effect on inflation will probably be small,” they said in a Wednesday note, also raising the positive effect of German stimulus. Goods exports to the U.S. accounted for 3.2% of euro zone gross domestic product in 2024, they said.
The economists said they expected “serious negotiations” between the EU and U.S. to begin soon, with the EU potentially able to leverage its status as a major market for U.S. services and tech companies.
— Jenni Reid
Here are Trump’s new tariff rates for more than 180 countries
President Donald Trump and the White House laid out the U.S. reciprocal tariff rates that more than 180 countries and territories will face under his sweeping new trade policy.
In charts posted on social media, the White House shows the effective tariff rates they claim other countries impose on American goods, including by “currency manipulation and trade barriers.”
An adjacent column shows the new tariff rates the U.S. will impose on each country or territory, including the European Union. The reciprocal rates are not necessarily the only U.S. tariffs these countries will face.
Trump held up the chart when he unveiled his tariff policy in the White House Rose Garden.
Chart of reciprocal tariffs.
Courtesy: Donald Trump via Truth Social
Trump imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports
In addition to the sweeping country-by-country tariffs announced today, Trump also imposed a 10% baseline tariff that effectively ensures a tariff on any country that is not among the more than 180 singled out.
“All articles imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 10%,” unless otherwise noted, the executive order signed this afternoon reads.
Trump also reserves the right to raise this baseline rate “should U.S. manufacturing capacity and output continue to worsen.”
Read the whole executive order here.
— Erin Doherty
European markets: Here are the opening calls
European markets are expected to fall sharply at the open Thursday as regional markets react to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariff announcements.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 121 points lower at 8,513, Germany’s DAX down 396 points at 21,994, France’s CAC 127 points lower at 7,731 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 547 points lower at 38,010, according to data from IG.
Data releases Thursday will include euro zone services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data for March.
— Holly Ellyatt
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